Abating climate change impacts on Kincaid’s lupine

This document summarizes monitoring of reintroductions of Kincaid’s lupine in multiple microclimates at three sites in the Willamette Valley, Oregon.  Over the years of this study, we have found that seed source and microclimate both affect emergence, survival, and growth (height and number of leaves).  Results will inform future management considerations regarding seed transfer zones and the perpetuation of this species in response to climate change.

Results from 2016 suggest:

• Success of Kincaid’s lupine growth and survivorship is tied greatly to the location of out-planting, at both the site and microclimate scale.  Considerations of site and microclimate quality could vastly impact the success of introduction efforts.
• Our data suggest that harsher microclimates can cause a decline in plant performance, though this was variable across sites and seed sources.  This was most evident at Fitton Green, where survival declined with increasing microclimate harshness.  As climate becomes increasingly harsher, Kincaid’s lupine might be increasingly impacted throughout its range.
• Kincaid’s lupine can be very plastic in its response to the environmental conditions it is planted into.  This is evident in the differences in height and number of leaves across all of the sites and microclimates.  Kincaid’s lupine was much taller across all seed sources at Coyote Prairie, and tended to have fewer leaves, on average, at Fitton Green.  These responses indicate that the plant shows potential to respond readily to the environment it is seeded into.
• Seed source was an important factor in growth and survival of Kincaid’s lupine.  Seed from Douglas County had higher rates of emergence than those from Eugene West and Corvallis West seed recovery zones, but survival in 2016 was variable and dependent upon site and microclimate.  At Fitton Green, survival tended to decline with increasing harshness of microclimate.
• Survival declined across all sites from 2013 to 2016 to less than 5% at all sites, suggesting that maintenance of out-plantings and introductions would be essential to success.
• Kincaid’s lupine from the southern extent of its range (Douglas County) can survive and thrive in the northern-most location, suggesting that if seed movement is needed to preserve this species, it would likely be successful.